Forest ThreatNet

March Madness. If you are even a casual fan of college basketball, you know what this phrase means. This is the time of the year where the unexpected becomes the normal. Unknowns and underdogs rise to the occasion and knock off the better-known and higher ranked teams in game after game. Despite the best efforts of the professional prognosticators and amateurs alike, no one can foresee or predict the ultimate outcome. As March transitions into April, this is also the time of year when winter gives way to spring and even predicting the weather next week is a challenge. The calendar tells me that it should be spring outside, but the temperature gauge and the ice and snow on my back porch suggests that winter is still lingering. The late spring stands in stark contrast to the very early and very warm spring that we experienced just last year. All of this has me wondering, what is the value of a prediction?

I remember reading an article recently about the value of the forecasts that preceded Hurricane Sandy making landfall in the Northeast. Yes, the losses due to the storm were terrific. But they could’ve been so much worse had it not been for the efforts of NOAA and the National Weather Service to provide information ahead of time that allowed emergency response organizations and the many federal, state, and local agencies time to prepare. It’s important to realize that this predictive capacity did not come easily, immediately, or cheaply. Years of effort and rigorous analysis went into developing the tools that were needed for an accurate prediction. As we approach the eighth anniversary of the Eastern Threat Assessment Center, I can see how our sustained efforts to develop predictive tools are beginning to pay off handsomely. Tools like ForWarn, WaSSI, and ForeCASTS are maturing nicely such that we can have greater confidence in their capacity to anticipate, predict, or assess forest threats. Other efforts are making similar progress, which raises my expectations that we will continue to provide first-rate, credible scientific information to all managers and users of our nation’s forests and the services they provide. The incalculable value of these forests demands nothing less.

Right: Southern Research Station Director Rob Doudrick (center in red shirt) honored Eastern Threat Center scientists and staff for significant research and partnership achievements in 2012.

Until next time,

Danny C. Lee