2009 Research Highlights
Probability improves forest decisionmaking
Management decisions are normally based on fixed assumptions about the environment and threats to what is valued. Ecosystems have never been static and novel threats from invasive species, forest fragmentation, and climate change and altered disturbance regimes involve a great deal of uncertainty. Planning approaches that formally address this uncertainty are necessary and uncertainties are often best addressed through probability models.
To be attractive to managers and planners, probability based approaches to planning must be transparent, analytically robust and easy to communicate to resource professionals and the public. Research at the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center over the past year has been focused toward these goals by exploring different approaches to learning and demonstrating how the output of statistical risk models can be efficiently and transparently represented in familiar map form.
Contact: Steve Norman, ecologist, (828) 259-0535, steve.norman@usda.gov
Partners: University of North Carolina Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center
