National-scale risk mapping and modeling for invasive forest pests: Related work and additional publications


Other work related to this project includes:


Spatio-temporal analysis of the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus) invasion in the southeastern U.S.:

  • Koch, F.H.; Smith, W.D. 2008. Spatio-temporal analysis of Xyleborus glabratus (Coleoptera: Ci[u]rculionidae: Scolytinae) invasion in Eastern U.S. forests. Environmental Entomology. 37(2): 442-452. (PDF)
  • Koch also wrote a chapter on the redbay ambrosia beetle for the 2007 Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) National Technical Report. It expands on themes in the Environmental Entomology article.


Work with Eastern Threat Center biometrician Bill Smith and Steve McKelvey of St. Olaf College, MN, on a linear network model for the movement of potentially infected nursery stock in the U.S.:

  • McKelvey, S., F.H. Koch, and W.D. Smith. 2008. Predicting movement of nursery hosts using a linear network model. Frankel, S.J.; Kliejunas, J.T.; Palmieri, K.M. (tech. coords.) Proceedings of the Sudden Oak Death Third Science Symposium, March 5-9, 2007, Santa Rosa, CA, pp. 249-256. PSW-GTR-214. (PDF)
  • Koch and Smith were also cooperators on McKelvey’s Evaluation Monitoring (EM) project that expanded the software to include an improved user interface and a number of map outputs. A summary of the research was included in the 2009 FHM National Technical Report. A manuscript has also been submitted to the journal Natural Resource Modeling, and is currently under review.


Together with scientists from APHIS and NC State University, Koch developed national-scale risk map products for a recently identified plant pathogen, Phytophthora kernoviae. These risk maps were rolled into the USDA’s “national recovery plan”, a new effort called for by a Presidential Directive on Homeland Security.

  • Benson, M., K. Ivors, E. Fichtner, M. Garbelotto, D. Rizzo, S. Tjosvold, E. Hansen, J. Parke, C. Hong, G. Chastagner, S. Jeffers, J. Woodward-Williams, S.H. Kim, K. Britton, G. DeNitto, S. Frankel, F. Koch, J. Micales, S. Oak, N. Grunwald, F. Martin, N. Shishkoff, K. Smith, P. Tooley, T. Widmer, R. Bulluck, G. Burnett, L. Ferguson, G. Fowler, L. Garrett, J. Jones, R. Magarey, B. Randall-Schadel, K. Cardwell, M. Draper, and T. Chand-Goyal. Recovery plan for Phytophthora kernoviae, causing bleeding trunk cankers, leaf blight and stem dieback in trees and shrubs. National Plant Disease Recovery System (NPDRS) disease-specific document. (PDF)
  • Koch also co-authored a chapter on Phytophthora kernoviae for the 2008 FHM National Technical Report.


Together with scientists from APHIS, NC State University, Michigan State University, the Canadian Forest Service, and the University of Florida, Koch is currently working on representation of human-mediated dispersal pathways in a pest risk mapping context.

  • This “pathways team” has developed an automated system to map potential human-mediated dispersal pathways based on international and domestic cargo/commodity flow databases. This is being applied for a list of APHIS’s “top 50” invasive pests: Magarey, R.D., D.M. Borchert, J.S. Engle, M. Colunga-Garcia, F.H. Koch, and D. Yemshanov. 2011. Risk maps for targeting exotic plant pest detection programs in the United States. EPPO Bulletin 41:46-56. (PDF)
  • Koch also worked with some team members to predict alien forest insect species establishment rates for urban locations in the U.S. and Canada, based on global trade and domestic freight traffic data as well as historical species occurrence records: Koch, F.H., D. Yemshanov, M. Colunga-Garcia, R.D. Magarey, and W.D. Smith. 2011. Potential establishment of alien-invasive forest insect species in the United States: where and how many? Biological Invasions 13:969-985. (PDF)
  • A complementary manuscript looking at trade-related entries of alien forest insect entries into Canada was published: Yemshanov, D., F.H. Koch, M. Ducey, and K. Koehler. 2012. Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada. Biological Invasions 14:797-812. (PDF)


Together with Yemshanov and other co-authors, Koch developed a modeling approach for reverse pathway analysis using National Recreation Reservation Service (NRRS) campground visitation data. The basic concept is that if a forest pest is found at a given campground, then the modeling approach can be applied to the visitor data in order to estimate probabilities regarding where (i.e., in which populated area) the pest likely originated. This model is intended to complement pest risk maps, offering forest health decision makers and personnel another source of information about where detection surveys or other activities might prove most cost-effective. An article in the journal PLoS ONE presents out-of-state origin risk maps, as related to camper travel, that were generated by applying the model to each of the lower 48 states as well as several Canadian provinces:

  • Koch, F.H.; Yemshanov, D.; Haack, R.A.; Magarey, R.D. 2014. Using a network model to assess risk of forest pest spread via recreational travel. PLoS ONE 9(7): e102105. (PDF)


In addition, Koch led a paper characterizing general patterns of camper travel and firewood transport as observable from the NRRS visitation data:

  • Koch, F.H., D. Yemshanov, R.D. Magarey, and W.D. Smith. 2012. Dispersal of invasive forest insects via recreational firewood: a quantitative analysis. Journal of Economic Entomology 105(2):438-450. (PDF)


The International Pest Risk Research Group (formerly the International Pest Risk Mapping and Modelling Workgroup) includes researchers from APHIS, the USDA Forest Service, and several other countries (Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand). Koch co-authored a manuscript with group members that outlines basic theories behind pest risk maps and offers a series of recommendations for improving the underlying science:

  • Venette, R.C.; Kriticos, D.J.; Magarey, R.; Koch, F.H. [and others]. 2010. Pest risk maps for invasive alien species: a roadmap for improvement. BioScience. 60(5):349-362. (PDF)

In July 2012, the group held its sixth meeting, entitled “Advancing risk assessment models for invasive alien species in the food chain: contending with climate change, economics and uncertainty”, in Tromsø, Norway. The meeting was sponsored by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Co-operative Research Programme: Biological Resource Management for Sustainable Agricultural Systems. The proceedings of this meeting were published in a 2013 issue of the journal NeoBiota, for which Koch served as a manuscript editor, reviewer, and author. He was also a co-author on the issue’s lead editorial:

  • Kriticos, D.J.; Venette, R.C.; Baker, R.H.A.; Brunel, S.; Koch, F.H.; Rafoss, T.; van der Werf, W.; Worner, S.P. 2013. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty. NeoBiota 18:1-7. (PDF)


In 2015, the group also completed its most ambitious project to date, Pest Risk Modeling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species, a book edited by Rob Venette (USDA-FS Northern Research Station), which provides practical guidance for analysts seeking to implement contemporary pest modeling and mapping techniques. Koch was a co-author on two chapters in the book:

  • Koch, F.H.; Yemshanov, D. 2015. Identifying and assessing critical uncertainty thresholds in a forest pest risk model. Chapter 13 (pp. 189-205) in Venette, R.C. (Ed.) Pest Risk Modeling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publishing. (PDF)
  • Yemshanov, D.; Koch, F.H.; Ducey, M.J. 2015. Making invasion models useful for decisionmakers: incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences. Chapter 14 (pp. 206-222) in Venette, R.C. (Ed.) Pest Risk Modeling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species. Wallingford, UK: CABI Publishing. (PDF)


Additional IPRRG products are forthcoming. Most notably, the group has begun a broad-scope, global pest risk assessment for the brown marmorated stinkbug (Halyomorpha halys) that promises to provide insights into approaches for analyzing the four main dimensions of invasion risk: entry, establishment, spread, and impact.

Recently, Koch collaborated with J.T. Vogt (USDA-FS Southern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis) on an article documenting the utility of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for addressing forest insect invasions. A section of the article discusses risk mapping and modeling applications, with illustrative examples:

  • Vogt, J.T.; Koch, F.H. 2016. The evolving role of Forest Inventory and Analysis data in invasive insect research. American Entomologist 62(1): 46-58. (PDF)


Other publications related to this project include:

  • McShea, W.J., W.M. Healy, P. Devers, T. Fearer, F.H. Koch, D. Stauffer, and J. Waldon. 2007. Forestry matters: the current decline of oaks will impact wildlife in hardwood forests. Journal of Wildlife Management 71(5):1717-1728.
  • Koch, F.H., and W.D. Smith. 2008. Mapping sudden oak death risk nationally using host, climate, and pathways data. Frankel, S.J.; Kliejunas, J.T.; Palmieri, K.M. (tech. coords.) Proceedings of the Sudden Oak Death Third Science Symposium, March 5-9, 2007, Santa Rosa, CA, pp. 279-287. PSW-GTR-214. (PDF)
  • Yemshanov, D.; Haight, R.G.; Koch, F.H.; Lu, B.; Venette, R.; Lyons, D.B.; Scarr, T.; Ryall, K. 2015. Optimal allocation of invasive species surveillance with the maximum expected coverage concept. Diversity and Distributions 21: 1349-1359. (PDF)


Updated August 2016

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