2012 Research Highlights
Adapting to Global Change: Impacts of Changes in Land Cover, Water Withdrawals, and Climate Change on River Flows
Using integrated models to understand impacts on people and ecosystems
Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center scientists published an integrated model, the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI), to estimate the impacts of future changes in impenetrable cover, water withdrawals, and climate on river flows across the conterminous United States. This study suggests that impenetrable cover has generally increased river flows, with larger impacts in and downstream of major metropolitan areas. In contrast, withdrawals have generally decreased river flows, with larger impacts in heavily irrigated arid regions of western United States. By 2060, impacts of climate change were predicted to overwhelm the potential gain in river flow due to future changes in inpenetrable cover and add to the potential reduction in river flows from withdrawals. Given that the impacts of land use, withdrawals, and climate may be either additive or offsetting in different magnitudes, integrated and spatially explicit modelling and management approaches are necessary to effectively manage water resources for aquatic life and human use in the face of global change.
This integrated, water-centric modeling system is built upon previous field scale forest water studies, regional water supply and demand research, and global carbon and water change databases. Scientists have used the WaSSI model to examine potential impacts of climate, land use, and population changes on water and carbon resources. Using this new modeling tool, forest managers can also look into the tradoffs between carbon and water for a particular basin under current and future climatic conditions. The model has been developed and applied in the United States and is being testing internationally in Mexico, South America, Africa, and Asia to evaluate impacts of global change.
Forest Service Partners/Collaborators: USDA Forest Service International Programs, US Agency for International Development
External Partners/Collaborators: Wildlife Conservation Society, University of Alabama-Huntsville, North Carolina State University
Contact: Ge Sun, EFETAC research hydrologist, ge.sun@usda.gov
