2014 Research Highlights
ForeCASTS of Trees in Transition Can Aid Management and Conservation
Whether tree populations adapt on site to changing climate and habitat conditions, shift their ranges to new suitable locations, or simply die out, the forests of today could be very different by the middle of the 21st century. Scientists with the Eastern Threat Center and a collaborating scientist from North Carolina State University have developed Version 5 of Forecasts of Climate-Associated Shifts in Tree Species (ForeCASTS) to map future habitat for 335 North American tree species. Using projections of future climate in combination with the concept of fine-scale ecoregions—land areas that share similar environmental characteristics, such as temperature, precipitation, soils, topography, and exposure to solar rays—ForeCASTS predicts global shifts in the environmentally suitable ranges of these tree species. Using ForeCASTS, researchers can determine whether the suitable habitat range for a tree species remains the same, moves, grows, shrinks, or disappears under climate projections for the years 2050 and 2100.
For ForeCASTS V5.0, researchers generated maps for each tree species showing the Minimum Required Movement (MRM) straight-line distance from each currently suitable habitat location to the geographically nearest location having conditions suitable for survival in the future. Similarly, they generated maps of the Optimum Required Movement (ORM) distance needed to reach the nearest location where the tree could still be expected to thrive, or grow as well as it does in the current present location. As ORM distance is always equal to or greater than MRM distance, ForeCASTS maps can help scientists, land managers, and policy makers understand where and how to invest in monitoring, conservation, and management activities to sustain future forests and individual tree species.
External Partners/Collaborators: North Carolina State University
Contact: Bill Hargrove, (828) 257-4845, william.w.hargrove@usda.gov
