2014 Research Highlights
Forest Pest Risk Maps Reveal Uncertainties
Scientists and collaborators with the Eastern Threat Center have pioneered new methods for the representation of uncertainty in invasive species risk maps, improving the maps’ utility for decision support. Pest risk maps are intended to show decision makers which locations in their regions of concern face the greatest risk of invasion by a pest, allowing decision makers to prioritize use of scarce resources for monitoring and management. Uncertainty is an inevitable aspect of the risk mapping process, as it arises from sources including the spatial data used to make the map as well as the parameter values of the model used to construct the map. Commonly, these various uncertainties are downplayed or omitted from final risk map products, which may lead map users to make incorrect management decisions.
A recent article in the journal Ecological Economics adapted investment portfolio theory to invasive species surveillance. The research outlined a framework for distributing surveillance resources (e.g., pest survey traps, funding for pest management efforts) among multiple geographic regions facing the threat of invasion. The approach is conceptually similar to how an investment portfolio is assembled from various types of financial assets in order to maximize the return on investment. The study revealed that a strategy of diversification, in which surveillance resources are allocated to both low-risk and high-risk geographic regions, is a useful way to deal with the inevitable uncertainty in assessments of invasion risk.
External Partners/Collaborators: Canadian Forest Service; Canadian Food Inspection Agency; University of New Hampshire
Contact: Frank Koch, (919) 549-4006, frank.h.koch@usda.gov
Right: Maps show distribution of pest surveillance resources at low, medium, and high levels of diversification. Image courtesy of Ecological Economics.
