Which Tree Species are Most at Risk?
A variety of threats, most importantly climate change and insect and disease infestation, will increase the likelihood that a given forest tree species will experience population-level or species-level extinction during the next century. The risk of such outcomes will vary because species differ widely in their physiological tolerances, life-history strategies, dispersal abilities, and susceptibility to pests and pathogens. Prioritizing species and populations for management and conservation activities, therefore, is a critical challenge for the USDA Forest Service, other federal and state agencies, and nonprofit organizations. To address this challenge, a cooperating scientist with the Eastern Threat Center is leading the four-year Project CAPTURE (Conservation Assessment and Prioritization of Forest Trees Under Risk of Extirpation), with collaborators throughout the Forest Service, to establish a framework for the categorization and prioritization of forest tree species and populations to target for monitoring, management, and conservation across multiple scales. Project CAPTURE provides training for resource managers and scientists to evaluate the genetic resources of forest tree species regionally and nationally through the application of an established prioritization framework. Following this training, these resource managers and scientists participate in a collaborative process to build expert consensus. This consensus focuses on specific conservation and management objectives of the prioritization process, risk and conservation factors to include in the assessment, and application of the framework to meet the defined objectives.
Right: The prioritization framework aims to assess the relationship for each species between the severity of three threats (Exposure to Pests and Pathogens, Expected Climate Change Pressure, and Lack of Structural Sustainability) and two intrinsic vulnerability dimensions (Sensitivity and Low Adaptive Capacity) associated with those threats. Click to enlarge.
References:
Potter, K.M.; Crane, B.S. 2012. Silviculture and the assessment of climate change genetic risk for southern Appalachian forest tree species. In: Butnor, John R., ed. 2012. Proceedings of the 16th biennial southern silvicultural research conference. e-Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-156. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 257-258.
Forest Service Partners/Collaborators: Southern, Pacific Northwest, Pacific Southwest, Northern, Rocky Mountain, Southwestern, Intermountain, Eastern, and Alaska Regions; Forest Health Monitoring Program; Forest Health Protection; Pacific Northwest Research Station; Pacific Southwest Research Station; Northern Research Station; Rocky Mountain Research Station
External Partners/Collaborators: North Carolina State University
Contact: Kevin Potter
