Understanding how Phenological Patterns Represent Successional Changes in Forest Recovery and Resilience
Ecosystem development is readily assessed at the plot level where researchers can measure exact biophysical characteristics of plants and apply them to larger scales. A complementary approach that takes full advantage of current state-of-the-art satellite technology is environmental remote sensing, which is capable of making precise measurements of plant biophysical activity level (NDVI, or vegetation greenness) at about 150 million points across the United States nearly 50 times each year. Researchers from the Eastern Threat Center are developing a technique that leverages information theory against these large remote sensing data sets to quantify and extract information about ecosystem resilience in response to climate change and other threats. The focus is on examining year-to-year changes within the context of ecological succession, allowing researchers to pose questions such as: ‘Do the observed changes in density and productivity of plants represent fundamental changes to the ecosystem or are they simply typical disturbance recovery patterns already observed elsewhere?’ Drawing connections between the information theory metrics of an ecosystem where disturbance is currently underway and a similar ecosystem that has already recovered from disturbance presents a new way for land managers to gauge the likelihood of certain outcomes following disturbance events.
Right: A map highlights year-to-year greenness consistency in eastern North Carolina and Virginia refuges. Brighter colors reveal areas where the biophysical activity level of live green plants is more likely to differ to help researchers understand whether each case represents actual susceptibility to fundamental shifts or normal recovery. Click to enlarge.
External Partners/Collaborators: Oak Ridge National Laboratory; NASA Stennis Space Center
Contact: Bjorn-Gustaf Brooks
