Don’t be afraid of (species distribution models for) forest insects! Here’s some guidance
If you’re not well-versed in the techniques of species distribution modeling, you may find it difficult to judge whether a model result for a species – most likely a map of potentially suitable areas – is reliable and therefore useful. This may be true even if you’re an expert in the species’ ecology. In a recent article focused on forest insects, a Southern Research Station scientist demystifies species distribution modeling and provides non-experts with some key aspects they should expect to find in a successful model.
Species distribution models, or SDMs, answer fundamental questions about where species are likely to survive and thrive based on environmental conditions. However, for inexperienced people, the terminology and technical aspects of SDMs can be overwhelming. Even well-trained modelers can struggle to understand the implications of some modeling choices. At the request of the Editors of the journal Agricultural and Forest Entomology, a Forest Service scientist wrote a perspective article entitled “Considerations regarding species distribution models for forest insects”.
The target audience is forest entomologists who have limited familiarity with SDMs but are asked to review a model result or are consulted during a model’s development. The researcher wanted to dispel some of the mystery surrounding SDMs and provide modeling non-experts with things to look for when attempting to assess the merits of an SDM for a forest insect. The main advice is to watch for how the model treats the insect’s host plants. A good model is developed with attention to insect-host relationships, since they determine much about the places the insect may occupy. Moreover, a non-expert should be able to discern whether a model incorporates some assessment of its limitations, its sources of error and uncertainty, and whether it seems to address the real-world circumstances it is meant to portray.
